If I were writing this in April or May I would've made jokes about how the Rays making the playoffs and winning a round was one of the final signals of the apocalypse.
I'd joke about gathering bottled water and canned food. But at this point, I don't think those jokes can be made. There's a good reason for that too.
The Rays are for real.
They have ugly uniforms. They tried to change their name to sound more respectable. They have a roster chalked full of mostly unproven young players. And they play in an area that doesn't seem to care about them or baseball in general. But none of those factors could slow them down this season.
The Rays have been the American League East doormat since their inception into Major League Baseball. Before this year they had won 70 games only once, in 2004. And that year they won exactly 70 games. Their marquee player before this season had been Rocco Baldelli; a young and athletic outfielder who couldn't stay on the field. Baldelli, a constant point of frustration, has finally been diagnosed with some sort of degenerative condition that might never allow him to be anything close to the player he was supposed to be and the player the Rays had hoped for.
The 2008 Tampa Bays Rays have written a new chapter in their franchise by winning 97 regular season games and, more importantly, summarily dismissing the Chicago White Sox three games to one in the best of five Divisional series. The core of Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, Scott Kazmir and James Shields are largely to thank for that. And now they would like to add a chapter titled, "World Series".
Standing in their way is the Boston Red Sox. The long time lovable losers have turned into the team, most people I know, love to hate. They have a seemingly bottomless bank account with which to acquire the best talent money can buy. They have absolutely insufferable fans that clam up when New England teams are losing, but shout, hoot and holler when they are winning. I have never seen more bandwagon fans in my life than Red Sox fans in California; although Lakers and Cowboys fans aren't too far behind.
This year's installment of the Red Sox won 95 regular season games which means they lost the division race to the Rays.
The Red Sox hold the all time series lead of 119-68, but the Rays went 10-8 against the Sox this season even though the Red Sox outscored the Rays 89-67 overall. Home field proved to be key, as the Rays went 2-7 at Fenway and 8-1 at Tropicana. So the fact that the Rays have home field advantage is huge, even if the stands have more Sox fans than Rays fans, which will absolutely be the case.
A quick look at the individual stats makes the case for the Red Sox. Rays starting pitchers have not fared well against the Sox this season. James Shields, the game one starter, is 2-2 with a 5.85 ERA vs. Boston this season. Meanwhile Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston's game one starter, is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA vs. Tampa Bay this season. It doesn't get any better for the Rays after that. Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza are the likely starters for games two and three. Kazmir is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and Garza is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA. Boston's likely starters for games two and three show the opposite. Josh Beckett is 2-1 with a 2.06 ERA vs. Tampa Bay this season and Jon Lester, perhaps the best pitcher on the staff right now, went 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA against Tampa Bay this season.
Yikes.
On the offensive side of the ball the stats don't paint a better picture for the Rays. Their pride and joy, Even Longoria, hit just .245 with one big fly against Boston this season. The catalysts seemed to be Carlos Pena (.314, 4 HR vs Boston) and Akinori Iwamura (.319, 4HR vs. Boston). So the performance of those two could help determine the outcome of the series.
For Boston, they will be looking to Dustin Pedroia (.296 vs Tampa Bay) to help lead. David Ortiz (.243, 3HR vs. Tampa Bay) and Kevin Youkilis (.232 BA vs Tampa Bay) were held in check by Tampa Bay. The unknown factor will be Jason Bay. His numbers against the Rays (.233 with 4HR) don't jump out at you, but he has helped the Sox Nation forget about Manny and he has been on fire thus far in the playoffs (7 for 17) against a good Angels pitching staff.
Starting pitching doesn't tell the whole story as we can see by the fact that Tampa ended up winning 10 of the 18 games against the Sox this year. Was it scrappiness? Knowing how to win close games? A better bullpen? Or did they just defy statistics for a period of time like the Arizona Diamondbacks did last year by being outscored all season, but ending up with a winning record?
I'd like to think that Andy Sonnanstine had something to do with it. He pitched 13 scoreless innings in relief against Boston this year. But it is hard to argue that he and the rest of the Rays pen is better than Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon for Boston.
Thinking unit by unit...
Starting pitching advantage- I have to give the advantage to Tampa Bay. After Lester, does anyone trust another Boston starter to pitch well right now? Beckett does not look right, Wakefield is a gamble every time and Matsuzaka can lose control at any moment.
Starting lineup- Here I am leaning towards the Red Sox. Their lineup has veteran leadership and experience, but also has some youthful exuberance with Pedroia leading the way. And all of them have played in the high stress playoff atmosphere before.
Bullpen-with Percival gone the Rays bullpen gets a little thin. Sonnanstine has been great, but if the Red Sox are ahead after seven innings, the game is pretty much over. Terry Francona is not afraid to have Papelbon pitch more than one inning for the save and Papelbon has shown that he can handle the added pitches and innings even in the playoffs.
Some talking heads have said that the Rays are young and might be too dumb to know how big this is. I don't see how that is possible. Every major leaguer grew up dreaming about playing in the playoffs with the World Series on the line. The Rays know what's at stake. And they've played very well when the stakes have been high.
As much as it pains me to write this, I think the Red Sox pull this series out. I think Josh Beckett pitches well and that turns the series. It will be a hard fought series, but the Sox will take it in 6. After all, if I thought the Rays would win and go to the World Series, then it might be time to start gathering bottled water, canned food and blankets.
Overall, a well written and thoughtful article. I have just three points:
1) I am a Boston Red Sox fan living in California. I am not a bandwagon fan. As much of a fan as I am, I do not like being associated with the likes of white trash and obnoxious Red Sox Nation. I do however enjoy going to A's games and participating in a 'home field' environment.
2) I very much agree that the Rays are young and don't know how to handle the playoff pressure. Boston has 'been there and done that' successfully and often this decade. Just because every major leaguer dreams of playing in October doesn't mean they will know how to do so succcessfully once they get there.
3) I also picked Boston in 6 games.
As you can probably tell, the Rays being young is not affecting their play. Not being here before does not bother this team, because if it did, they wouldn't have won 97 games. There were a lot of things they weren't supposed to do this year and they did it. This team is not fazed, and they are pounding Lester at Fenway to prove it as we speak.
I know I'm responding with the Red Sox down 3-1 in the series, but:
Winning 97 games in the regular season means NOTHING come playoffs. Ask the Angels.
That being said, they are playing extremely well and that's all that matters in October. I hate the Rays.
You missed the point. I didn't say 97 wins would win them a title. I said they weren't supposed to do it, and they did.
If you weren't sold on them then, I hope you are now. Beating Boston in game seven is the stuff of legend. Any other team would have folded. The Rays have too much character.