Today is a day that every single baseball junkie loves.....it's the day that pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training.
For a guy like me, it might as well be a frickin holiday.
It symbolizes so many things like the return of spring, sunshine and nice weather. But what it really means is that I am getting my first taste of baseball activity.
Two weeks after that, Spring Training games begin. A few weeks after that, the regulars will actually start to play and two weeks after that it is the Mecca of all holidays and that is Opening Day.
It was an interesting off season, with a flurry of moves here and there and with some big names being dealt for practically nothing. It was an off-season that saw far more teams get better than worse, and it should make for an exciting 2008 season.
Here is our season preview, and I will be amazed if anyone reads it all. It's not as long as the Mitchell Report, but it compares with the statments the Roger Clemens' lawyer has been putting out.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
Last Year: 82-80 (4th)
Outlook: The Dodgers being predicted to win the West is not the general consensus amongst our staff of writers, but I am going to use the excuse that I am a bigger baseball nerd than the other two (if that is true, it's barely) and pull rank by making this call.
Ben went with Colorado and Mike picked Arizona (which I berated him for in about three emails.)
Let it be known, I am a Dodgers fan, but I am also the world's biggest pessimist. For me to pick my own team means they really had to show me something.
And they did.
Bringing in Joe Torre was a great move. Signing Andruw Jones to a two-year deal was an even better move. Not only does Jones' bat bring some thunder to a lineup full of singles hitters, it moves Juan Pierre and his noodle arm to left field, and I am hoping it leads to him being traded. Also, Hiroki Kuroda was a great move because you bring in a guy that will actually make every start and not leave the rotation in shambles.
Last but not least, opening up competition at third base between Nomar Garciaparra and Andy LaRoche was a fabulous move. Now, Nomar (who is in a contract year) will play hard and the very talented LaRoche might be motivated to replicate his Minor League numbers.
Prediction: First.
Colorado Rockies
Last Year: 90-73 (2nd)
Outlook: I worry that the Rockies aren't the team that won 21 of 22 games to end the season and reach the World Series and that they are really the team that was 76-72 before the run. There is no doubt that they have a very talented team, that fact cannot be argued.
But I would like to point to one integral part of last year's lineup that is no longer there and that is second baseman Kaz Matsui. You might be thinking I am drunk or high, suggesting that they won't be as good because he is gone, but when he got into the lineup last year, the offense really started to take off.
Now they are looking at Jayson Nix or Marcus Giles, which means they got substantially worse at that position. They didn't really need to upgrade anywhere else, but in staying the same around the diamond means that the lineup is slightly worse.
They will also be starting a pair of rookies in the rotation in Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales. Don't get me wrong, they are both super talents and can throw very hard, but now they have to prove they can do it 33 times. It's just a lot to ask.
I believe this team will be the Wild Card if they don't win the division and I expect it to be one heck of a race in the NL West.
Prediction: Second
Arizona Diamondbacks
Last Year: 90-72 (1st)
Outlook: The Diamondbacks Pythagorean record last season was 79-83 because they were outscored by 20 runs for the season. Yet, they found a way to win 90 games which means three things: They had great pitching, a great closer and a lot of luck. Now they only have the great pitching and will need to hope for another charmed season.
It's true they acquired Dan Haren and it's true that Brandon Webb is the best pitcher in the NL not named Jake Peavy. But it's also true that Doug Davis is their projected third starter, they are counting on Randy Johnson, a 44-year old with back problems, to be their fourth starter and they are also hoping that Micah Owings continues to not suck.
I think it's too much to count on.
The second factor is the trade of Jose Valverde to Houston, in which they received season three of Charmed in return. It was a horrible trade of a top five closer, especially when you consider that Arizona was a team living on the edge and winning close games.
A lineup full of Chad Tracy, Orlando Hudson, Eric Byrnes, Connor Jackson, Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Justin Upton and Chris Snyder does not scare me. Sure, there is some talent, like Young and Upton, but there are also overachievers like Byrnes and Hudson who were much better at the plate last year than normal.
It's just not a scary team, and with lady luck not on their side this season, I look for them to fall back a little closer to .500.
Prediction: Third
San Diego Padres
Last Year: 89-74 (3rd)
Outlook: It's finally time for the overachieving Padres to come back to Earth and there are a lot of factors for this. For one, they have been a very pitching dependent team since moving into Petco Park, but take a look at the back end of their rotation. The fourth starter is Randy Wolf, who has made 43 starts in the last three seasons and the fifth starter is Mark Prior, who didn't pitch in 2007 and was 1-6 in nine starts during the 2006 season with a 7.21 ERA.
Secondly, a pretty solid outfield that once consisted of Milton Bradley, Mike Cameron and Brian Giles sees Giles as the only returning player. He will be joined by Scott Hairston, who is not an everyday player and Jim Edmonds, who is decaying as we speak.
Lastly: the infield. This is where the Pads are fairly solid with young, quality players like Adrian Gonzalez and Khalil Greene, but Kevin Kouzmanoff didn't look like the stud you give Josh Barfield up for and when Tad Iguchi is your big off-season move, you are in trouble.
In the bullpen, Scott Linebrink is obviously gone and Trevor Hoffman is the same age as Jesus. This leaves Heath Bell as your main setup guy and then four pitchers named Clae, Clay, Cla and Clai.
Watch for the Friars to sink like a stone.
Prediction: Fourth
San Francisco Giants
Last Year: 71-91 (5th)
Outlook: The Barry Bonds era is finally over, but hopes that Giants fans had of rebuilding were quickly dashed when the projected lineup was announced. It had Dave Roberts, Randy Winn and Rich Aurilia in it while youngsters Kevin Frandsen, Nate Schierholtz, Fred Lewis and Raj Davis are sitting the bench.
This is discouraging for a Giants team that has been the oldest in the NL for some time now, and aren't getting any younger, especially when you remember they brought back a 40-year old in Omar Vizquel.
Basically, the Giants have been talking about needing to rebuild for some time, but aren't committed to it and if they continue delaying the process, they are going to miss their window with this current group of kids.
Aaron Rowand was the only key off-season move they made, and they gave him too many years. Plus, he is the only replacement with power in a lineup that saw 41 percent of Its home runs leave when Bonds, Pedro Feliz and Ryan Klesko departed.
Any baseball fan knows that the Giants have talented pitching, but to this point Barry Zito has proven to be a flop, Matt Cain is unlucky and inconsistent and Tim Lincecum is still green. Noah Lowry is a big inning waiting to happen and instead of starting Jonathan Sanchez, Kevin Corriea is getting the chance at the fifth starter spot. Still, if the Giants compete, it will be because of their arms.
It won't be because of their bullpen, because it's horrible. This was the Giants Achilles heel last year and didn't get any better. In life I think people deserve a second chance, but second chances for Tyler Walker and Brian Wilson aren't going to turn out very well. Just a feeling.
Prediction: Fifth
NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers
Last Year: 83-79 (2nd)
Outlook: Last season, the Brewers were too young and weren't quite ready to compete in a tight pennant race. A year older and wiser, the Brewers should be expected to win this division.
Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, Cory Hart and J.J. Hardy are all a year older and they made what I think are very good pickups. Mike Cameron and Jason Kendall provide excellent defense up the middle while Cameron gives you some home run pop. Moving Bill Hall back to the infield is also a good move, giving him more time to focus at the plate instead of worrying about learning to play the outfield.
Gabe Gross, Craig Counsell and Tony Gwynn Jr. (or TGX as Mike and I call him) give the Brew Crew a solid bench.
Starting pitching is a bit of a worry because Ben Sheets can't stay healthy while Chris Capuano and Dave Bush are inconsistent. Jeff Suppan gives you exactly what you expect and the wild card of this staff is Yovani Gallardo. He is incredibly talented, but might not be ready for a full major league season. This will be a huge factor.
Even though he is a shell of himself and was full of steroids, Eric Gagne should provide some stability in the bullpen as will David Riske towards the back end. The key for the pen will be whether Derrick Turnbow can figure things out.
This is likely to be the year when Brewers fans will be micturating in their pants.
Prediction: First
Chicago Cubs
Last Year: 85-77 (1st)
Outlook: It's not often that you win your division, make moves to get better and actually get thought of as the underdog the next year. I think the general consensus is that the Cubs aren't all that good.
I think I agree, but on paper, they look very good. Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez are three big boppers while Ryan Theriot and Mark DeRosa are solid players. They are very interchangeable as well, with Matt Murton and Ronny Cedeno being able to play a number of positions.
Here are the question marks: Is Felix Pie ready to carry his weight and play every day? Is Kosuke Fukudome going to be a good Major League player and can a rookie catcher, Geovany Soto, deal with Carlos Zambrano when he tries to fight him?
I am also wondering how Sean Marshall worked his way out of the rotation, enough so to give Jon Leiber and Ryan Dempster a shot at the fifth spot.
They are still fairly solid in the bullpen, especially in middle relief, but it's very hard to say if the Carlos Marmol/Kerry Wood combo platter will equal a lot of saves, or just elbow problems with a side of jam.
Okay, that was stupid.
Prediction: Second
St. Louis Cardinals
Last Year: 78-84 (3rd)
Outlook: The Cardinals quietly gathered a couple of pieces and might be able to avoid mediocrity and settle for being average. They have hard hitting corner infielders with Albert Pujols and Troy Glaus, and a young and powerful outfield with Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick.
Cesar Izturis will be a solid replacement for David Eckstein, but neither he nor Adam Kennedy are going to hit much.
Defensively, it starts with Yadier Molina and he is virtually impossible to run on. Izturis is great as is Pujols, but Glaus and Kennedy are both butchers. I am pretty sure none of the outfielders care too much about defense. Not to say they are going to go Ted Williams on us and take practice cuts in the field, but I am sure they will be thinking about swinging for the fences in their next AB.
Pitching wise, they pulled off another reclamation project last year with Joel Piniero and are hoping for another with Matt Clement. Braden Looper and Anthony Reyes will join those four as guys that could go either way as one of them will just be keeping a seat warm for Chris Carpenter. Adam Wainright is one guy who will stay in the rotation, for better or for worse.
Getting to the Cardinals middle relief will be key because it's not very good, and we all know (despite having a good year last year) that Jason Isringhausen is a blown save waiting to happen. Plus he's old and getting fat.
With Scott Rolen gone and Tony LaRussa trying to kick the booze, the only story line from the Archway will be a middle of the road team.
Prediction: Third
Houston Astros
Last Year: 73-89 (4th)
Outlook: Change was needed in Houston, and change is exactly what transpired.
Only three of the eight position players are returning starters as Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence bring big bats to the Houston lineup.
Brad Ausmus is back, but J.R. Towles is actually considered to be the frontrunner to do the bulk of the catching.
Miguel Tejada is the new shortstop, Ty Wigginton is at third, Kaz Matsui is at second and Michael Bourne is in center. These are very solid players, but outside of Mark Loretta they lack any depth.
With Bourne aside, they are clearly looking to outscore teams because this team is a bad defensive one on paper. Bourne was a good move, because he is one of the fastest players in baseball and Minute Maid Park has a lot of ground in centerfield.
They're pitching rotation shows you they don't care about shutting teams down, because outside of Roy Oswalt, everyone is pretty much terrible. I mean, Woody Williams is the No. 2 starter for Christ's sake.
Bringing in Jose Valverde was a big move for the bullpen, but don't expect the bullpen to hold on to too many leads for him. Valverde might lead the league in saves in games where more than 15 combined runs are scored.
This team is looking like the Rockies teams of the past, and we saw how well that worked.
Prediction: Fourth
Cincinnati Reds
Last Year: 72-90
Outlook: What kind of team would trade an immensely talented and powerful outfielder for a pitcher that is merely battling to be a fourth or fifth starter?
A team desperate for pitching would, and the Reds qualify as that, hence giving up Josh Hamilton for Edinson Volquez. Volquez is competing to be the fifth starter, and Hamilton is a stud. In my opinion, you keep the stud and deal with someone slightly worse as your fifth pitcher.
With Matt Belisle also slated to be in the starting rotation, it's no wonder trade rumors have swirled around youngsters like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce in exchange for Oakland's Joe Blanton.
The trade probably won't go down, so we will see Votto at first and probably see Bruce in the outfield at some point after Ken Griffey Jr. pulls something on his trot to first after grounding out to right field, or Ryan Freel decapitates himself by running into a fence or another human being.
Young sluggers like Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Dunn and Brandon Phillips make this an exciting team and Jeff Keppinger and Norris Hopper are exciting young players as well.
Francisco Cordero gives them the closer they haven't had, and not only does that signing help in that department, but it sures up the late innings because David Weathers can pitch the seventh and eighth innings.
As talented as they might be, the Reds are going to need Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo to pitch well almost every single time out, just to have a chance to compete, and neither of those guys are absolute stoppers, to say the very least.
Prediction: Fifth
Pittsburgh Pirates
Last Year: 68-94 (6th)
Outlook: There is no possibility for the Pirates to move out of last place, but there is a possibility they could win 70 games. Rome wasn't built in a day. Brick by brick, my citizens.
The new management team in Pittsburgh seems to have the right idea, and that is holding on to the young pieces and trying to have a couple of veterans around for presence and leadership.
The pitching parts are what the Pirates need to hold on to, let develop and lead them to their first .500 season since 1992. Tom Gorzelanny, Ian Snell, Zach Duke and Paul Maholm are a very good collection of young arms. Matt Morris, the projected fourth starter, is horrible, but hopefully he can be a calming influence because you know he won't be worth anything on the mound.
Matt Capps is also a closer you can keep around for a while, and building a bullpen piece by piece should be a priority.
Position wise, Pittsburg has about four keepable pieces in Xavier Nady, Jason Bay, Freddy Sanchez and Adam LaRoche. Everyone else is expendable and if they have highly touted prospects in center, at short, second and behind the dish, now is the time.
Pittsburgh fans have to be losing their patience, and they will need to see an actual plan in place to maintain any hope. It might take a few years, but if they are horrible for four or five more years, the Onion might be right in assuming that PNC Park is going to want a divorce from the horrible team that runs around like the Bad News Bears in its beautiful confines.
Prediction: Sixth
NL EAST
New York Mets
Last Year: 88-74 (2nd)
Outlook: When the Mets raped the Twins for Johan Santana, most analysts were ready to crown the Mets as the National League champs, but not so fast.
Don't get me wrong, this now moves them ahead of the Phillies in the East, but by no means does it make them the best team in the NL.
Let's look at the weaknesses first.
The rest of the rotation is hoping that aging and oft-injured pitchers such as Orlando Hernandez and Pedro Martinez can A) stay healthy and B) be somewhat effective. They are also banking on John Maine to be as good as he was last year (which he won't) and Oliver Perez to be consistent (which he isn't).
They are also getting very old in certain positions, namely with Carlos Delgado at first and Moises Alou in left. Carlos Beltran and Luis Castillo are players that are losing a step while stop gaps like Ryan Church and Brian Schneider are below average players.
Also, Billy Wagner is getting old and the rest of the bullpen is sub-par.
You're probably wondering how I could possibly be picking the Mets if I see all these problems. Well......
The positives: David Wright and Jose Reyes are phenomenal and they will be good because of Reyes wreaking havoc on the base path and Wright terrorizing pitchers. Santana, in an understatement, is a big positive. They will likely win 80 percent of his starts, meaning they probably have 28 wins before the season starts.
Prediction: First
Philadelphia Phillies
Last Year: 89-73 (1st)
Outlook: As scary as it sounds, I think the outcome of this division hinges on who signs Kyle Lohse.
Before you start thinking I am insane, hear me out. I think if the Mets sign him, the Phillies then get the advantage and vice versa if the Phils sign him.
The problem with Lohse is that A) he was a jerk to me and B) he's not very good and has somehow become the biggest free agent pitcher left on the market. Because of this, his value has been inflated and one of those teams has been tricked into thinking they need him. Little do they know, it would be beneficial to the other team.
Now, about the actual players who are Phillies; we know they can hit. Losing Rowand has equaled Geoff Jenkins which is a step down, but Pedro Feliz is a step up at third compared to the revolving door they've had since Rolen left. Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley make this team scary, no matter who else is on the team.
Pitching is a concern, even with Brett Myers moving back to the rotation. After Myers and Hamels, it's question marks with Grandpa (Jamie) Moyer, Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton.
One of the more underrated moves of the off-season, I believe, was acquiring Brad Lidge. A change of venue could do him well, but it is unfortunate he moved to another crackerjack stadium.
I sound like a broken record, but it's because nobody seems to have a good bullpen anymore. Tom Gordon is their best reliever, which bodes well for hitters who love 90 mph fastballs down the middle and sliders that hang at the belt.
Prediction: Second
Atlanta Braves
Last Year: 84-78 (3rd)
Outlook: So the Braves lost Edgar Renteria and Andruw Jones and they expect to compete in the East. Well, they lose players all the time and they stay at least competitive. Those losses won't hurt too bad because Yunel Escobar was ready for the shortstop job and Mark Kotsay makes up in leadership what he lacks in Jones' offense.
The Braves will be fine offensively because of Mark Teixeira and a bunch of other solid players throughout the lineup, but pitching is going to make or break this team.
Is John Smoltz too old to dominate? Can Tom Glavine still get people out with a changeup and an 82 mph fastball? How will Mike Hampton get hurt this time? These are questions that need answers if the Braves want to know if they will be good or not.
Tim Hudson is going to be solid, as usual, and with Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano at the back end of the bullpen, the Braves will be pretty good if the pitching holds up.
That is a very big if....
Prediction: Third
Washington Nationals
Last Year: 73-89 (4th)
Outlook: I was one person who said the Nats wouldn't be as bad as everyone thought they were going to be, and I was right. People said this would be a team to lose 100 games and they didn't. They were still bad, but not absolutely horrible.
Will they be better this year? Well, yes and no. Playing in a new stadium is going to make them exciting to watch and position wise, they are pretty good.
Dmitri Young and Ryan Zimmerman at the corners is formidable while Austin Kearns, Lastings Milledge and Wily Mo Pena makes for an outfield with talent and pop.
Up the middle they will be weak because Milledge is not known for his defense, Paul LoDuca is breaking down and Christian, Felipe Lopez and Ronnie Belliard equal out to about average both offensively and defensively.
This is a lineup of a .500 team. It's the pitching staff of a .375 team.
They are letting the youngsters pitch as Shawn Hill, John Patterson, Jason Bergmann, John Lannan and Matt Chico are going to make the bulk of the starts, for better or for worse. I mean for worse. Pitching won't win them many games, unfortunately.
Chad Cordero is by far their best pitcher and their bullpen is better than their rotation. Not much, but better.
They are a long way from competing, but they should be fun to watch.
Prediction: Fourth
Florida Marlins
Last Year: 71-91 (5th)
Outlook: If I was playing with this team on MVP for PS2, they would be a blast and I would make them a World Series contender in a year. It's too bad that they stopped making the MVP MLB game and it's too bad the Marlins don't exist in a purely video game oriented world.
They have some players who are extremely fun to watch, like Hanley Ramirez and Cameron Maybin and they have players who are going to keep getting better in Mike Jacobs, Josh Willingham, Dan Uggla and Jeremy Hermida.
Let's just say that Dallas McPherson (who I once had on my MVP team) is not Miguel Cabrera and Florida is really taking a chance in hoping the once highly touted prospect will pan out.
Mike Rabelo is a young catcher, who will be working with young pitchers like Andrew Miller, Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco and Scott Olsen.
The Marlins are also hoping that Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson get healthy and get back on the mound, because two years ago in their improbable run to a near Wild Card berth, those two were great.
I don't want to waste to much of my typing power on the bullpen, because they just have guys who throw straight and hard, which would also work in MVP.
In video game world, Hanley wins the NL MVP, Maybin the ROY and McPherson the comeback player of the year on my way to winning the title, but in real world this is a young team that might win 70 games.
Prediction: Fifth
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL WEST
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Last Year: 94-68 (1st)
Outlook: The Angels spun a couple of big moves this off-season, which are only going to make them better. Sure, they lost a good shortstop in Orlando Cabrera, but he is 33 and was in the final year of his deal. In return, the rotation got better with the acquisition of Jon Garland.
Also, the signing of Torii Hunter is a good one in the short term. This contract will come back to haunt them, but not this year or next.
So, with two of the best defensive centerfielders in the AL in the same outfield (Gary Matthews Jr. will be in left) to go with rocket arm Vladimir Guerrero, the Angels have a very good defensive outfield that will also equal production at the plate.
Trading Cabrera also opens the door for Erick Aybar and Brandon Wood to earn playing time on the right side of the infield.
Mike Scioscia has always been a big fan of having interchangeable parts, and with Reggie Willits and Garret Anderson adding to the outfield depth and Casey Kotchman, Robb Quinlan and Kendry Morales adding to the infield depth, he will have a lot of guys he can use in a number of places.
Let's not forget Chone Figgins, who can play anywhere, and Howie Kendrick, who can play first as well as his normal second base spot.
The Angels are built around interchangeable parts on offense, and they are built around solid pitching throughout the rotation and the bullpen.
John Lackey is clearly one of the best pitchers in the AL and Kelvim Escobar could be a No. 1 on most teams. If he misses a few starts early because of his injury, a guy like Dustin Moseley or Chris Bootcheck will have no problem filling the void.
Jered Weaver is a more than capable No. 3, Garland is a very good No. 4 and Joe Saunders is a No. 5 a lot of teams would like to have. With Scot Shields and Francisco Rodriguez at the back of the bullpen, this will continue to be a team that will win most close games in the late innings.
Expect more of the same from the Angels, and expect them to have more firepower to match up against teams like the Red Sox and Yankees.
Prediction: First
Seattle Mariners
Last Year: 88-74 (2nd)
Outlook: The Mariners are doing their best to keep up with the Angels, and on paper it seems like they should be able to.
But, alas, they will not.
Richie Sexson is not good, Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez are offensive enigmas and Adrian Beltre is inconsistent to say the least. Raul Ibanez is getting older and Brad Wilkerson is the quick fix for the departed Jose Guillen.
Any team with Ichiro leading off will generate offense, and Kenji Johjima is terrific behind the plate, but I think the loss of Guillen is bigger than most people do.
If I rattled those names off to you, you would probably think that it's a good team, but I don't think it's quite good enough.
Same goes for the pitching.
Clearly, Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez at the top of the rotation is as good a 1-2 as you can have, but the rest of the staff are overpaid, overvalued guys such as Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista.
Again, just at first glance or mention, they might seem solid all the way through, but the more you think about it, the more you like your chances against any of those three guys.
I do like their pen, especially with J.J. Putz shutting the door at the end. I have it from a high authority that Putz really likes Pearl Jam.
He should come out of the bullpen to Yellow Ledbetter.
Prediction: Second
Texas Rangers
Last Year: 75-87 (4th)
Outlook: Alright, listen. They're getting better. You might be thinking, "ya right, they're the fucking Rangers," but I do like this team. In fact, I think they could surprise.
The finally said screw it to worrying about having good pitching, and built a team with a pretty good offense. Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Jason Jennings, Brandon McCarthy and Kason Gabbard are all above average pitchers and I think that's fine with this team this year.
Trading for Josh Hamilton was huge and Milton Bradley always produces when he isn't hurt (which is a lot) or going insane (which is often). Sometimes those two things go hand in hand.
Hank Blalock is healthy and Ian Kinsler and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are only going to get better. Oh ya, I almost forgot to mention that Michael Young is going to get you 200 hits in a bad year.
I also like seeing that they kept a solid role player like Marlon Byrd around as he will start in left. This allows Nelson Cruz and Jason Botts to develop, getting some AB's in backup OF roles and as a DH.
Forget about the bullpen, because frankly it sucks. This team is just going to try and out slug you.
Prediction: Third
Oakland A's
Last Year: 76-86 (3rd)
Outlook: I had to decide if I was going to call them the Triple A's or come up with something funny, but instead I decided to keep it simple.
Key players gone: Dan Haren, Nick Swisher, Mark Kotsay, Shannon Stewart.
Likeley gone by the trading deadline: Joe Blanton, Mark Ellis.
Could be gone: Eric Chavez, Huston Street, Bobby Crosby.
The A's are in a complete rebuilding phase, but still have some parts to work with. The infield of Chavez, Ellis, Crosby, Kurt Suzuki and Daric Barton is above average with the potential of being amazing if Crosby and Chavez figure it out, Suzuki keeps improving and Barton lives up to potential.
The outfield: not so much.
Travis Buck is going to be very good, but Chris DeNorfia and Emil Brown are below average players. Jack Cust will obviously have pop at the DH spot, but how much will his controversy serve as a distraction?
Depth is also a concern, because Jack Hannahan, Donnie Murphy and Dan Johnson are guys that you don't want to give a lot of at bats to and the youngsters like Carlos Gonzalez and Ryan Sweeney are probably too young and might not even start the year in the Bigs.
You might be thinking to yourself that the A's are usually built around pitching, but the staff has nothing but question marks. Blanton might not even be in Oakland to long, Rich Harden will not stay healthy, Chad Gaudin is coming off hip surgery, Lenny DiNardo isn't any better than me and Justin Duchscherer is not only coming off hip surgery, but hasn't started since the Minor Leagues.
The bullpen is pretty solid with Street, Alan Embree, Andrew Brown, Jerry Blevins and Santiago Casilla. Those are all guys who throw pretty hard.
The A's are truly building for the future because they have five or six very good pitching prospects that could be starting soon as well as a handful of position prospects that could be very good.
You will soon see kids like Gonzalez, Sweeney, Aaron Cunningham, Chris Carter, Gio Gonzalez, Sean Doolittle, James Simmons, Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Gregorio Petit, Trevor Cahill, Cliff Pennington, Landon Powell and Fautino de los Santos and if half of these kids pan out, the A's might actually be good down the road.
The only problem is that they will have to blow it up again.
Prediction: Fourth
AL CENTRAL
Detroit Tigers
Last Year: 88-74 (2nd)
Outlook: Much to my surprise this wasn't the consensus pick of this staff because some fool (Mike) is sticking with Cleveland. That might be a great move, but on paper this team looks too good to be true. Let's see if it translates onto the field.
Obviously we all know that they landed a couple of big players in Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, but we forget the fact that they also traded for Edgar Renteria. Around the infield, this team goes Ivan Rodriguez, Carlos Guillen, Placido Polanco, Renteria and Cabrera. You have guys with great averages and great power around the horn, and that's not even mentioning that Brandon Inge is now a super utility guy. A player with 30-home run power and great defense is now your utility guy.
Oh ya, that Magglio Ordonez guy isn't bad and Curtis Granderson is a budding superstar. Gray Sheffield still has pop and Marcus Thames and Jacque Jones are an adequate righty/lefty platoon in left field.
I've never thought too highly of Willis or Nate Robertson, but they are both left handed and will make good fourth and fifth starters. Another left, Kenny Rogers is serviceable and will be the third starter (perhaps he and Willis will flip flop), but the rotation is going to be anchored by a couple of young, hard throwing right handers in Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman.
In 2006, it was starting pitching and the bullpen that got them to the World Series, but now I think those will just be complements to a great offense. When you have an All-Star team out on the diamond, your pitching just needs to be decent and the Tigers staff is certainly that.
Prediction: First
Cleveland Indians
Last Year: 96-66 (1st)
Outlook: I know, after winning 96 games with a young team and having everyone return, they should just get better, right?
I agree, but the Tigers got much better and the two teams play 19 times. I think this means a few more losses for the Tribe. I think they win over 90 games, but whether that will be good enough to make the playoffs is up in the air because of how good the top tier teams in the AL are.
They seriously return everyone to a young and exciting lineup. Grady Sizemore is getting better and better, Franklin Gutierrez is going to be good (my compliments to the Indians for plucking him from my Dodgers) Travis Hafner is not going to have another year like last season, which means his production will probably go up and an entire season of Asdrubal Cabrera at second can only be a good thing.
They are so deep that very good young players like Andy Marte and Josh Barfield won't win starting jobs.
C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona should combine for close to 40 wins, Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook are still good enough and they have their pick between youngsters Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers and Adam Miller to pick from for the fifth spot.
Don't get me wrong, this team will contend, but it's going to be much harder to win the division this year. I do expect them to be right there and to stay close to the Yankees or Red Sox in the Wild Card chase.
Prediction: Second
Minnesota Twins
Last Year: 79-83 (3rd)
Outlook: So you give up Johan Santana for three above average and one pretty good prospect, and you replace him in the rotation with.......Livan Hernandez?!? What??
So far I am not thrilled with the Twins moves in the post-Terry Ryan era, because the infield is the equivalent of a Triple-A infield (with the exception of Justin Morneau at first and Joe Mauer behind the dish). Everywhere else......awful. Mike Lamb at third, Adam Everett at shortstop and Brendan Harris at second? At least let Alexi Casilla play there because he might be good someday.
The outfield has some potential because Carlos Gomez might be good, Delmon Young already is good and Michael Cuddyer is above average. Jason Kubel can hit a little and Craig Monroe should be okay as another DH/fourth OF. Still, this sounds like a very good Triple-A team for the most part.
They still have a lot of good, young pitching and if Francisco Liriano comes back healthy, he is an absolute ace at the top of the rotation. Boof Bonser and Scott Baker are getting better and that means Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins are all rookies left to slug it out for the fifth spot.
The Twins are always scrappy and they play the game right. They aren't going to fall into the cellar, but they certainly won't be within 15 games of first place.
Prediction: Third
Chicago White Sox
Last Year: 72-90 (4th)
Outlook: Bringing in Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher were good moves, but they gave up a lot to do so. Still, they wanted to compete this year.
Unfortunately that won't happen because Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye are getting old, Joe Crede's back is jacked (Josh Fields should be starting anyway) and Juan Uribe is still on the team.
Which Paul Konerko will show up this year? How is A.J. Pierzynski still on the team? These are all reasons the White Sox will continue to suck.
The pitching will be up and down again, because Javier Vazquez was very good last year meaning he'll be horrible this year. Jose Contreras is just horrible, and is probably 50, and John Danks and Gavin Floyd will never be good. This leaves Mark Buehrle on his own to try and win all 33 of his starts. If he can do that, this team might finish .500.
If he doesn't, Bobby Jenks will probably eat one or two of his bullpen mates due to severe boredom caused by lack of pitching in close games.
Prediction: Fourth
Kansas City Royals
Last Year: 69-93 (5th)
Outlook: I really wanted to pick them to finally move out of the cellar, but then I remembered they signed Brett Tomko.
Before that, I thought they had made good moves, but those were all for naught because Launchpad McQuack is in the rotation.
I like them bringing in Jose Guillen and they have some talented youngsters like Alex Gordon, Tony Pena Jr. and Mark Teahan, but they still have too many Ross Gload's and Mark Grudzielanek's on their team. It's just not a very good team.
They have three pretty good starters with Gil Meche, Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke (who doesn't throw his 56 mph curve anymore) but after that it's a mess; i.e. Tomko.
Bullpen: Ya, right.
Predicition: Fifth.
AL EAST
New York Yankees
Last Year: 94-68 (2nd)
Outlook: Two words, one name: Joba Chamberlain. It's a good move to start him in the pen, let him build up and then start him. When he gets in the rotation, this team will be fierce. I think they want to see of Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte are going to hold up, or if Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy can go a full season.
Regardless, the Yankees now have a surplus of pitching, the greatest player on Earth and one hell of a lineup, even with Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi actually decomposing.
It's still the usual suspects with Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreau, Robinson Cano and Hideki Matsui to go along with an ever improving Melky Cabrera. Then you figure Wilson Betemit and Shelley Duncan give them a good amount of depth for the inevitable Giambi or Damon injury.
Getting the ball to Mariano Rivera with a lead could be challenging if Chamberlain is not in the bullpen, but I think, as usual, the Bombers are going to score too many runs for that to be a legitimate concern.
I don't foresee them starting the season like they did last year and I don't foresee them letting the Red Sox win the division again.
Prediction: First
Boston Red Sox
Last Year: 96-66 (1st)
Outlook: I hate this team. I hate them so bad. I think they have a lot of questions and uncertainty, but maybe that's just me wishing that they miss the playoffs.
Here are my concerns and questions: A) Josh Beckett dominated like he did in 2003, meaning he won't be good again until 2011. B) The back end of the rotation is old and injury prone with Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield. Schilling won't be ready and Wakefield will get hurt, meaning a heavy load for Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester and probably Julian Tavarez. C) Are David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez getting past their prime and ready to taper off a little more? D) How long can you cover up glaring holes like J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo? E) Did Mike Lowell only perform that well because he was an aging vet in a contract year?
With all that said, they will keep winning and pissing me off. The signing of Sean Casey and the fact they held on to Coco Crisp gives them depth and the bullpen is going to be very solid.
I just hope that age and injuries catch up this year, because if they do it could be 2006 all over again.
Prediction: Second
Toronto Blue Jays
Last Year: 83-79 (3rd)
Outlook: They keep trying to keep up with the Jones', but it's hard when the Jones' are Bill Gates and Paul Allen.
Still, Toronto should get better especially if everyone stays healthy. A full season of Lyle Overbay and Reed Johnson can only help, Alex Rios is still getting better and Vernon Wells will have a much better season, that's for sure.
Scott Rolen and David Eckstein will make a solid defensive duo on the left side of the infield as the Jays sacrificed a little pop for some stability.
Pitching wise, Roy Halladay is going to be great and I think Dustin McGowan is a superstar waiting to happen. If A.J. Burnett pitches for the entire season, that's a damn good top three. The trio of Shawn Marcum, Jesse Litsch and Gustavo Chacin will be battling for the last two spots, and any of those three guys will be good enough.
The bullpen, with B.J. Ryan back and Jeremy Accardo and Jason Frasor getting him the ball, is going to be extremely solid.
Predicition: Third
Tampa Bay Rays
Last Year: 66-96 (5th)
Outlook: They are just the Rays now, and this year the Rays won't be in last. Mark it down, because the Orioles have shot past them in sucking.
I think this could finally be a good team, but the key is if Rocco Baldelli can stay healthy. Because they traded Delmon Young, this puts a lot of pressure on him to do so, because they aren't deep in the outfield. A trio of him, Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton sure sounds good.
The infield sounds good too, and moving Akinori Iwamuri to second was a good move, both for defensive purposes and for the fact it opens the door for Evan Longoria, who will be a stud.
Carlos Pena is still an enigma as is Jason Bartlett at shortstop, but good years for those guys could mean good things for the Rays.
Pitching wise, James Shields and Scott Kazmir will only get better and Matt Garza is a huge upgrade. Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine are just keeping seats warm because they have a lot of talented pitching prospects in the Minors.
It's too bad that this team is in the AL East, but I think being a .500 club in a year or two is a legitimate goal.
Prediction: Fourth
Baltimore Orioles
Last Year: 69-93 (4th)
Outlook: Last year they were horrible and that was with Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada. Now Luis Hernandez is the shortstop and Daniel Cabrera is the No. 1 pitcher. This team might be the worst team in baseball when it is all said and done.
I think Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are two great outfield pieces to build around, but Kevin Millar, Aubrey Huff, Ramon Hernandez, Melvin Mora and Luke Scott are either old, suck, or both.
Also, Brian Roberts has to be screaming for a trade and wondering how he isn't playing for Chicago right now.
They're pitching is horrible as it their bullpen. This team is a joke.
Prediction: Fifth
