December 2007 Archives

By Matt Smith and Ben Malley

Armed Forces Bowl- Cal (6-6) vs. Air Force (9-3), Dec. 31: This is one last chance for the Cal Bears to salvage what remains of a devastated season. Once No. 2 in the country and primed to claim the top spot, Cal went into a tailspin, losing six of seven and was lucky enough to fall into the Armed Forces Bowl. For Air Force, it's the chance to end the year with 10 wins and put the icing on what has been a very good season, which has gone mostly unnoticed nationally.

The Falcons are going to run the ball, and that doesn't bode well for a Cal defense that doesn't stop the run very well. Air Force is second in the country in rushing, averaging nearly 300 yards a game. Cal will need to focus on Chad Hall, who leads the team in rushing and receiving.

The Bears need to make a change at quarterback, and Jeff Tedford probably won't do it. Nate Longshore, still battling an ankle injury, has completed just 57 percent of his passes and has thrown 11 interceptions since missing the Oregon State game. What's worse is that twice in the last three games, he has been well under 50 percent. If he can just get the ball to DeSean Jackson, Lavelle Hawkins or Robert Jordan, then the Bears will be fine. Justin Forsett has been a workhorse all year, but has his work cut out against a team allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. The Bears are bigger up front, and that should help.

Predictions:
Matt- Cal
Ben- Air Force
Mike- Cal

Humanitarian Bowl- Georgia Tech (7-5) vs. Fresno St. (8-4), Dec. 31: This is a game with a couple of good running attacks and abysmal passing attacks. The Jackets have 1300 yard rusher and ACC leader Tashard Choice, while the Bulldogs have the young duo of Ryan Matthews and Lonyae Miller who combined for over 1300 yards of their own this year.

Georgia Tech of course will be without fired head coach Chan Gailey. They will be coached by Defensive Coordinator John Tentua whose defense is 11th in the nation and 12th against the run. Fresno St. with all due respect, play in the WAC so their defense does not exactly compare.

If Fresno St. has a chance they are going to have to hold Choice down, and they haven't exactly been able to do that against good backs this year. They gave up over 300 yards on the ground in a loss to Oregon and another 300 yards against the Texas A&M option offense.

Predictions:
Matt- Georgia Tech
Ben- Georgia Tech
Mike- Georgia Tech

Sun Bowl- South Florida (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4), Dec. 31: It still makes me feel bad to think of what the Oregon Ducks were just over a month ago. They were in control of their own destiny as far as going to the national title game, but too many injuries turned them into a below average team.

An above average team might have trouble against a South Florida squad that has shown a lot of resilience in coming back from a mid-season slide. Matt Grothe is a dual threat to run and throw and the fact that Oregon doesn't get to the quarterback much could mean a big game for him. He will open it up for Mike Ford, who has been running the ball very well lately.

Scoring points is where Oregon is going to have problems. Jonathan Stewart is a great running back, but Oregon has three quarterbacks injured which means freshman Justin Roper will be under center if a concussion keeps fellow freshman Cody Kempt out. South Florida will be able to focus on Stewart with an inexperienced QB going against one of the top secondaries in the country in Mike Jenkins and Trae Williams. Expect George Selvie to be pressuring the QB and making life hard for Stewart all game long.

Predictions:
Matt- South Florida
Ben- South Florida
Mike- South Florida

Music City Bowl- Kentucky (7-5) vs. Florida St. (7-5), Dec. 31: Obviously the story here is that Florida St. is missing half their team because they cheated in a music history class. A fucking music history class! It's not like it was a class on the German hyperinflation following World War I. Music fucking-history. I wrote that and then I read Bobby Bowden's opinion on the matter, "I can't believe, a music course," coach Bobby Bowden said Friday. "It's not physiology, it's a music course. Open book, online. Anybody could pass an open book test, gee whiz." Gee whiz, that guy is old.

Anyway to the game. Unfortunately for the Seminoles their biggest losses are on the defensive side of the ball which they will need to stop Andre' Woodson and his top 20 ranked offense. Look for Woodson to be flinging the ball Chris Leak style all over the field.

On the offensive side of the ball Florida St neither has a dependable quarterback (Drew Weatherford/Xavier Lee) or a running game, junior tailback Antone Smith only ran for 663 yards this year, good for 3.8 yards a carry. It was already going to be difficult for Florida St. to beat a solid Kentucky team who beat LSU and lost very close games to Florida and Tennessee. Without so many key players it's looking even less likely.

Predictions:
Matt- Kentucky
Ben- Kentucky
Mike- Kentucky

Insight Bowl- Indiana (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6), Dec. 31: Indiana has trouble stopping people and Oklahoma State can score. This sounds like bad news for the Hoosiers, especially when you consider Pokes quarterback Zac Robinson threw for over 2,500 yards and rushed for nearly 800 more. They are a three-pronged attack as Robinson is joined by Dantrell Savage in the backfield along with wideout Adarius Bowman.

Expect Savage to have a big, big day. Indiana is allowing over 150 yards a game on the ground and Savage is averaging 5.9 yards a carry this year and has gone over 100 yards in nine straight games. Indiana is going to have to crowd the box, and make the Cowboys win by going to the air.

Speaking of going to the air, this is where Indiana thrives on offense. The Hoosiers have an explosive playmaker in quarterback Kellen Lewis, who is only a sophomore. Lewis threw for almost 3,000 yards and rushed for close to 600, leading the team in both departments. When he drops back to throw, he is a threat to take off and run, which will force Oklahoma State to spy him for much of the game. The Cowboys might also think about double covering his favorite target, James Hardy, who is ginormous at 6-7 and 220 pounds. He caught 74 passes for over 1,000 yards and 16 touchdowns this year.

Predictions:
Matt- Oklahoma State
Ben- Oklahoma State
Mike- Oklahoma State

Chick-Fil-A Bowl- Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4), Dec. 31: This feels like an SEC game. Clemson gets these awesome recruits in every year and then isn't that good. That's why they are playing in a bowl named for a fast food chicken restaurant (albeit a very good one, my meat-eating Southern friends tell me).

Auburn has a just plain horrible offense. Al Borges agrees, that's why he resigned from the OC position a couple weeks ago. There is good news and bad news for War Eagles/Tigers/whatever-they-are fans. The bad news is that 24-year-old Brandon Cox is still the team's starting quarterback. The good news is that it will be his last game and Auburn has the sixth rated scoring defense in the country. They will need to establish the running game with Ben Tate and rely on their defense to shutdown Clemson's Cullen Harper and the dual running attack of James Davis and C.J. Spiller.

If Auburn wins it will be because they kept it low scoring and got some special teams help, because Clemson's defense is just as formidable, ranked sixth in the nation in total defense. However, they'll be missing a couple of key players because of academic problems.

Predictions:
Matt- Auburn
Ben- Clemson
Mike- Clemson

By Ben Malley and Matt Smith

Car Care Bowl- Connecticut (9-3) vs. Wake Forest (8-4), Dec. 29: We have a team that likes to run the ball (Connecticut) against a team that is very good in stopping the ball (Wake Forest), but we also have a Wake Forest team that is not very good at running the ball playing against a UConn defense that is not all that good against the run. This seems to spell disaster for the Huskies. Wake likes to try and run the ball, and if it's there early expect the Demon Deacons to keep going with the run game led by Josh Adams. Expect the Huskies to try and establish the run behind their two very good backs in Andre Dixon and Donald Brown II, but if it gets stuffed early that will put a lot of pressure on Tyler Lorenzen who isn't a guy that wins games, just manages them. That's where the difference will likely be, at quarterback as Wake Forest has Riley Skinner, who is more of a playmaker and is very good at making big plays through the air.

Predictions:
Matt- Wake Forest
Ben- Wake Forest
Mike- Connecticut

Liberty Bowl- UCF (10-3) vs. Mississippi St. (7-5), Dec. 29: The Liberty Bowl is the Kevin Smith showcase game. UCF's junior running back leads the nation in rushing with 2,448 yards, only 180 behind Barry Sanders' all-time mark. On the Mississippi State side is coach Sylvester Croom, one of the feel good stories of this year's college football season. Croom has led a Bulldogs squad which hasn't won more than 3 games in the last five years to a bowl game, their first appearance in seven years.

The UCF Knights have won seven games in a row since their 52 point drubbing by then highly ranked USF. Obviously the story will be Smith on the ground who has only been held under 100 yards once, that being the USF game. With the focus on stopping Smith quarterback Kyle Israel will have to perform well. He has shown that he can manage a game well, limiting his mistakes, having only thrown 8 interceptions all season. If he can do what little is asked of him, Smith should be able to do the heavy lifting.

On the Mississippi St side the offense is a little less inspiring. Quarterback Wesley Carroll has taken most of the snaps. His 1353 passing yards and 9 TDs show why the Bulldogs are near the bottom among SEC offenses at 22 points per game.

On paper it looks like Mississippi State doesn't have the offense to compete in this game, but taking into account their SEC schedule they are certainly the better tested team.

Predictions:
Ben- UCF
Matt- UCF
Mike- UCF

Alamo Bowl- Penn State (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (7-5), Dec. 29: Anthony Morelli has big games against bad teams, thus making him look better than he is. When it's time to play Ohio State and Michigan, the glass slipper comes off his foot but when he plays teams like Texas A&M, he is Cinderella.
Not to say that Texas A&M is bad, but its pass defense is horrible, ranking 100th in the nation. Rodney Kinlaw has been great for the Nittany Lions in Austin Scott's absence, and he should be able to chew up some much needed yardage, but Jordan Norwood, Derrick Williams and Deon Butler should all have big games catching the ball. Morelli should be able to pick apart the bad Aggies secondary, despite his tendancy to force the ball and throw off his back foot.
Don't let Stephen McGee and his 362 yards passing against Texas fool you, because A&M's signal caller likes to run the ball. With him and 270-pounder Jorvorskie Lane in the backfield, the Aggies are going to try and pound the ball at Penn State. Dan Connor leads a Penn State defense that is ranked sixth against the run, but they will have their hands full.

Predictions:
Matt- Penn State
Ben- Penn State
Mike- Penn State

Independence Bowl- Colorado (6-6) vs. Alabama (6-6), Dec. 30: This is one of those bowls that didn't exist 20 years ago and shouldn't exist now. Two mediocre teams in BCS conferences going at it in a game that both teams will tell you means so much and it's very important to end an underwhelming season on a positive note, but they are LYING to you. The Nick Saban investment wasn't for the purposes of playing Colorado in Shreveport. Since their blowout win against Tennessee the Tide have failed to win a game, even falling to Louisiana-Monroe.

Things are pretty even across the board. Colorado is the 78th ranked offense in the country, Alabama is 79th. Colorado is 60th in passing, Alabama is 61st. You get the idea. When the talent is even we like to look at how the teams are playing, and how much they care about the game. With Bama on the decline and playing in a game that many of their fans probably consider beneath them, that may give the edge to Colorado. The Dan Hawkins era at Colorado seems to be starting to take shape. This year their downfall has been inconsistancy. A win over Oklahoma and a loss to lowly Iowa St.

Predictions:
Ben- Alabama
Matt- Alabama
Mike- Colorado

With Navy and Utah kicking off very shortly to start Bowl Season, here are the second wave of breakdowns.

Motor City Bowl- Purdue (7-5) vs. Central Michigan (8-5), Dec. 26: When Purdue was busy sprinting to a 5-0 start, a 45-22 victory over Central Michigan was part of the hot start. Since then, the Boilermakers have gone 2-5 while CMU has gone 7-3 and their recent run has led to Butch Jones emerging as a top candidate for the West Virginia job. Two things have changed since that first matchup: Purdue is without receiver Selwyn Young who was dismissed from the team and Central Michigan has started to run the ball much better, which is the achilles heel of the Purdue defense. Chippewas quarterback Dan LeFevour ran for over 1,000 yards and they should have starting running back Justin Hoskins back. But, even without Young, Curtis Painter is still a dangerous quarterback with some good receivers and backs. There are a couple of questions that surround this bowl: will Purdue be able to stop the run and will Jones still be the coach when it starts? Purdue will move the ball, but can they stop someone?
Predictions:
Matt- Purdue
Ben- Purdue
Mike- Central Michigan

Holiday Bowl- Arizona State (10-2) vs. Texas (9-3), Dec. 27: Arizona can easily be expected to go two ways, and that is they will play very well or very poorly after being the biggest snub for a BCS Bowl outside of Missouri. The Devils seemed to fit perfectly in the Fiesta Bowl, especially considering their losses were to two top ten teams. With big name quarterbacks, Rudy Carpentar for Arizonsa State and Colt McCoy for Texas, expect this game to come down to the running game. Jamaal Charles has really emerged as a threat on the ground especially after Mack Brown realized that McCoy is not good enough to rely on. The Sun Devils line is an anomoly; horrible at pass blocking but great at run blocking. They average 315 pounds, but apparently prefer forward blocking to blocking while retreating. Ryan Torain will still be out, but Arizona State is loaded at the running back position and Keegan Herring and Dimitri Nance should combine to have a big day.
Predictions:
Matt- Arizona State
Ben- Texas
Mike- Texas

Champs Sports Bowl- Boston College (10-3) vs. Michigan State (7-5), Dec. 28: This game should be the story of one quarterback trying to win the game for his team and the other trying not to lose it. BC's Matt Ryan should have to carry his team while Sparties Brian Hoyer should be asked to manage the game. MSU should continue to hand the ball to its version of thunder and lightning in Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick, but the Spartans might not be smart enough to do that. They are going to remember a BC team that looked vulverable against Sean Glennon, but with cornberback DeJuan Tribble returning, they get a whole lot better. The Sparties would be smart to pound it. The Eagles would be smart to dance with who brought them and leave it to the right arm of Matty Ice. He has played poorly at times (like against VT) and he has a bit of a gunslinger's attitude, but he has made more plays to help win thatn the other way around. In what should be a contrast in style will likely turn into an aerial battle.
Predictions:
Matt- Boston College
Ben- Boston College
Mike- Boston College

Texas Bowl- TCU (7-5) vs. Houston (8-4). Dec. 28: When I think of Houston, I think of it throwing the ball all over the field, but they have relied more on running back Anthony Alridge than they have freshman quarterback Case Keenum. TCU has a pretty strong run defense, so Keenum's ability to stay composed and make decisions could be put to the test. The Horned Frogs have an incosistent offense that also relies heavily on the running game, so expect these two teams to try and establish dominance on the ground, early and often. Whichever team can control the ground game and the line of scrimmage early will likely take control of the game, forcing the other team's quarterback to beat them. Keenum nor TCU's Andy Dalton seem to have the ability to do that.
Predictions:
Matt- Houston
Ben- TCU
Mike- TCU

Emerald Bowl- Maryland (6-6) vs. Oregon State (8-4), Dec. 28: Both teams love to run the ball, and they dread relying on their quarterbacks. The Terrapins have two very good running backs in Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball who have combined for 25 touchdowns. The Terps quarterback....not so much. Chris Turner has thrown just five TDs to go with five picks. The Beavers should have their stud back return in Yvenson Bernard, who missed the Oregon game after a minor knee surgery. Oregon State, which has really been on a roll since beating then No. 2 Cal, will have to decide which quarterback to go with; Sean Canfield who is returning from a shoulder injury or Lyle Moevao. Really, it doesn't matter because neither one is particularly amazing. Forgive me if I sound like broken record, but these again are two teams that want to establish the run. Look for who does so to take a step in the right direction towards leaving San Francisco with a win.
Predictions:
Matt- Oregon State
Ben- Oregon State
Mike- Oregon State

1. Celtics (17-2)- So good that I was shocked when they lost a game. Once we see them against the top 8 in the West on the road, we'll know if they are ready this year to actually win a title and not be finals fodder for the Western Conference representative.

2. Spurs (17-4)- They are a machine. With Duncan down Ginobili has been great. We all know they will be in the Western Conference Finals whether we like it or not.

3. Magic (16-6)- Dwight Howard is an MVP candidate. As advertised, they have the best frontline in the east and maybe in the league. They play together well and everyone on the team knows their roll.

4. Suns (16-6)- Chugging along like the last few years. They don't look as good as last year, but they are still damn good. Still, I feel like their window of opportunity closed last year with Robert Horry's cheap shot on Nash and the subsequent suspensions.

5. Pistons (15-6)- I hate them. They don't have anyone that I am interested in watching. They have gone away from grinding out games and opened up the offense under Flip. Unfortunately for them, they still essentially have the same team that has come up short the last few years. And Lebron single handedly beat them last year.

6. Jazz (13-9)- A little bit inconsistent and a much different look for a Jerry Sloan team has me a little confused (both scoring and giving up a lot more points). Still, they can match up favorably with just about everyone in the West.

7. Hornets (14-7)- CP3! I'm not sure that there is an adequate adjective to describe the combination of youth, talent and athleticism that Paul possesses. I don't trust the Hornets as a team, but as long as they have Paul healthy, they have to be up here.

8. Mavericks (14-8)- As long as Dirk finds his stroke the Mavs will be a top 4 seed. Although after watching him so far this year, he doesn't look hungry. I am anxious to see if Cuban goes after Kidd.

9. Nuggets (13-8)- I watched part of a Nuggets game the other night and Najera was launching threes, Iverson was passing, and Camby looked old. I have no idea what to make of this team, but I think they are good and possibly scary when running on all cylinders.

10. Lakers (12-8)- You know what you are getting from Kobe every night; namely passionate play from the best player in the league. The question is what will his teammates bring from game to game? So far it's been consistently inconsistent.

11. Warriors (12-9)- The most entertaining team in the league. The big question is can they keep winning with such bad rebounding and FT numbers. Or if they can improve those numbers.

12. Raptors (12-10)- They were hanging around and looking feisty without TJ Ford and Chris Bosh. Ford comes back, looks good, and then he almost gets decapitated last night. If Bosh is healthy they are good. If he's not, look for them to drop in the rankings.

13. Cavs (10-12)- Witness.

14. Rockets (11-11)- I'm not convinced the Rockets will be an elite Western Conference team. If they regress this year, someone needs to go. But no one will because they will never trade Yao or T-Mac. And so it goes.

15. Wizards (11-10)- Caron Butler is damn good. The Lakers have to be upset about giving him up. Although he would only get 5 shots a game in LA. If only Agent Zero wasn't hurt so they could trade him for a true point guard and some more help for Caron and Antawn. The ESPN trade machine was down, so I couldn't see if a Bibby for Arenas trade is feasible.

16. Pacers (10-11)- I hate Dunleavy Jr. He haunted my dreams during his tenure at Golden State. Of course now he is more confident and is becoming a scorer. Still, I don't trust this team to keep up this pace. And it's not even that great of a pace.

17. Bulls (7-12)- OK, we're back on track, right? Um...right? I think so, but we'll see. If you shoot under .400 as a team you won't win many games. It's science.

18. Hawks (10-11)- You have to love the eastern conference. A conference in which the Hawks can emerge as a playoff contender when they still aren't really ready for prime time. They do have a lot of young talent. I guess that is bound to happen when you pick in the lottery for 15 straight years. Al Horford is a double-double waiting to happen every night. Could you imagine if they had Chris Paul instead of Marvin Williams? *Gulp*

19. Blazers (9-12)- The Warriors play them tonight at Portland and I am horrified. They are playing great at home and seem to have good chemistry. They will only get better. They could be scary next year with another lottery pick in their future.

20. Kings (8-12)- They are battling without two of their three best players. This either means they will go on a run when they are healthy or, more likely, they are better off without Bibby.

21. Nets ( 9-13)- Stuck being too good for the lottery and too bad to do anything in the spring. A Kidd trade makes less sense than a Carter or Jefferson trade to me, considering they are the same exact player. However, since good point guards are like good pitchers in baseball, Kidd will get them more in return.

22. Grizzlies (6-15)- All they do is lose close games. Someone once said that any game that is decided by less than ten points is on the coaches. Hmmm....They might be a playoff team in the east.

23. Bucks (8-12)- This team is hard to figure. They seem to have a lot of good pieces, but it's not coming together on the court. Has anyone figured out why Charlie Villanueva shaves his eye brows? What if Yi and Bogut shave their eye brows as a team unity thing? Can one of the 11 Bucks fans make this happen?

24. Heat (6-15)- With Wade coming back and being well, himself, things should improve for the Heat, even if Shaq smells like formaldehyde. At least he's only getting paid 20 million a year through 2010. Yikes.

25. Bobcats (7-12)- They're so young and talented! They have assets! They suck.

26. Clippers (8-12)- After a fast start, its back to reality. No Brand and no Livingston was bound to catch up to them. If they end up with the #1 pick and get Brand and Livingston back at full strength next year? Dear God.

27. 76ers (8-13)- Sifting through the wreckage that was the Billy King era should be fun to watch. I am surprised they have 8 wins.

28. Sonics (5-17)- It's been difficult to watch Kevin Durant get thrown to the wolves every night. I feel like the Sonics are owned by Rachel Phelps, the owner of the Indians in Major League. They will be bad enough that the city will be disinterested enough to let them move. Maybe Durant's intro music should be 'Wild Thing'.

29. Knicks (6-14)- Just an abomination. The mecca of basketball in the United States has turned into a cavern of boos and chants calling for the firing of various coaches and execs throughout the organization. And if Stephon Marbury asks you to get into the back seat of his car, bring something to sit on.

30. Timberwolves (3-16)- Um, go Vikings?

A load of crap.

1. Georgia (10-2): I think they are playing as well as anybody down the stretch. Maybe good enough for top billing in this poll, but playing for a national title is a different story.

2. Ohio State (11-1): By default this middle of the road team is going to be playing in the BCS title game.

3. Oklahoma (11-2): The Sooners were the most impressive team of any on championship game Saturday.

4. USC (10-2): Playing extremely well right now. Six straight Pac-10 titles is nothing to sneeze at.

5. Missouri (11-2): The Tigers two losses are to a team ranked in the top three. Their BCS snub is the biggest of all.

6. Kansas (11-1): Everyone wants to give them a crack at the Sooners, but they will fare worse than Mizzou, that I will tell you.

7. LSU (11-2): A bunch of glorified escape artists, that's all the Paper Tigers are.

8. West Virginia (10-2): The Mouintaneers ripped my heart out. I know that going by the point spread, the Stanford upset of USC was bigger, but the title game was at stake. This was the year's biggest shocker.

9. Florida (9-3): Tim Tebow is probably going to be the first sophomore to win the Heisman Trophy.

10. Hawaii (12-0): Now, we get to see exactly how legit they are. Showed a lot of heart in coming back against Washington.

11. Virginia Tech (11-2): I thought they were overrated heading into this past weekend, but they have a legitimate gripe based on where they were ranked.

12. Illinois (9-3): The Illini in the Rose Bowl is a pile of vomit. They are going to get destroyed.

13. Arizona State (10-2): They got screwed badly. It was a terrific season that deserved to end in a BCS game.

14. Clemson (9-3): Tommy Bowden isn't going to Arkansas. Does anyone care what Tommy Bowden does or doesn't do?

15. Cincinnati (9-3): The Bearcats in the Papjohns bowl is maybe the biggest farce of the bowl season.

16. Boston College (10-3): Boston College had VT dead to rights, and Matty Ice wasn't exactly cool under pressure this time around.

17. Tennessee (9-4): Erik Ainge's fourth quarter implosion keeps them from a BCS game and being ranked in the top ten.

18. Texas (9-3): The Horns are the most irrelevant ranked, big time program this season.

19. Virginia (9-3): I can't wait for their bowl game to see how many times we will be reminded who Chris Long's dad is.

20. Wisconsin (9-3): I hate how the Big Ten season ends so early. It seems like these teams are off for three months before bowl season.

21. South Florida (9-3): The Big East was a very good conference this season.

22. Arkansas (8-4): Another year, another Heisman runner up for Darren McFadden. The only problem for Hogs fans is that he won't be coming back this time.

23. Auburn (8-4): The more I thought about it and the more time off Texas Tech had, the more I liked the Tigers.

24. Boise State (10-2): The annual Boise State coach leaving for a bigger program rumors are alive and well.

25. BYU (10-2): Looking for some revenge in a rematch with UCLA this bowl season.